The amount of hype new oil discoveries receive these days is telling.
BP's latest "giant" oil field discovery "Tiber" is said to contain 3B barrels of oil in place.
Peak Oil debunked. Gas up the hummer. Energy crisis solved.
But consider;
1) 20% of the field is actually recoverable, or 600M barrels. Divide that by 75M barrels a day oil consumption - and you get 8 days supply
2) The field is supposed to be developed in 2015...in the intervening 6 years, the world will have burned 164 Billion barrels of oil, or 273 Tibers. Depletion is relentless, and discoveries are no where close to replacing what we are using
3) The oil is 6 miles below the floor of the Gulf of Mexico in hurricane alley, the easy oil is long gone
4) If this project actually moves forward, it will mean one thing, high oil prices. The cost to develop this field is enormous, mind boggling - only in a high oil price environment would BP consider allocating capital in hope for a return to shareholders.
Next time the media announces a major oil find, take it with a grain of salt
- Rinx
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Friday, August 21, 2009
Ben is working overtime
The Fed created another $50Bil or so last week...what's a few Billion, it doesn't seem like much...but when you stop and think a few key strokes on Ben's cash register equates to the combined enterprise value of Petro Canada and Suncor (roughly), it puts that kind of illegitimate "wealth" creation in perspective...sooner or later the shit will hit the fan...got gold?
- Rinx
Fed Assets Increase 2.3% on Buying of MBS, Treasuries (Update1)
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet rose 2.3 percent as the central bank bought more U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Fed assets gained $46.2 billion to $2.06 trillion in the week that ended yesterday, the central bank said today in Washington. Holdings of mortgage-backed securities jumped $66.6 billion to $609.5 billion, and the Fed’s portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities increased $7.1 billion to $736.1 billion.
U.S. central bankers kept the benchmark lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at their Aug. 12 meeting and extended a $300 billion Treasury purchase program until the end of October. The Fed said economic activity is “leveling out,” and conditions in financial markets have “improved further.”
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has flooded the banking system with reserves, providing billions in financing and liquidity for banks, and the commercial paper, asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities markets. Fed officials are studying the tools needed to roll back monetary expansion.
Credit extended through the Fed’s Term Auction Facility, a mechanism to provide greater distribution of reserves to commercial banks, declined by $12.5 billion to $221.1 billion.
Discount-window lending to commercial banks stood at $29.9 billion yesterday versus $38 billion the previous week. Commercial paper held by the Fed under an emergency program begun in October fell to $49.5 billion from $53.8 billion
- Rinx
Fed Assets Increase 2.3% on Buying of MBS, Treasuries (Update1)
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet rose 2.3 percent as the central bank bought more U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Fed assets gained $46.2 billion to $2.06 trillion in the week that ended yesterday, the central bank said today in Washington. Holdings of mortgage-backed securities jumped $66.6 billion to $609.5 billion, and the Fed’s portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities increased $7.1 billion to $736.1 billion.
U.S. central bankers kept the benchmark lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at their Aug. 12 meeting and extended a $300 billion Treasury purchase program until the end of October. The Fed said economic activity is “leveling out,” and conditions in financial markets have “improved further.”
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has flooded the banking system with reserves, providing billions in financing and liquidity for banks, and the commercial paper, asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities markets. Fed officials are studying the tools needed to roll back monetary expansion.
Credit extended through the Fed’s Term Auction Facility, a mechanism to provide greater distribution of reserves to commercial banks, declined by $12.5 billion to $221.1 billion.
Discount-window lending to commercial banks stood at $29.9 billion yesterday versus $38 billion the previous week. Commercial paper held by the Fed under an emergency program begun in October fell to $49.5 billion from $53.8 billion
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Czars
It seems you can't swing a dead cat in Washington anymore without pelting a "czar" of some sort or another. They have a "car czar", "bank czar", "pay czar" among many others.
Used to be a czar was some disingenuous Russina oligarch from a century ago. Somehow Obama has resurrected the term, cleaned it up, and appointed modern day "czars" rulers of industry. Washington media seems to like the term, maybe this is the royalty they have always been envious of.
Wasn't too long ago entrepeneurs were celebrated leaders of American industry.
Elite government rule is a cancer to prosperity, is there a better reason to be short America?
- Rinx
Used to be a czar was some disingenuous Russina oligarch from a century ago. Somehow Obama has resurrected the term, cleaned it up, and appointed modern day "czars" rulers of industry. Washington media seems to like the term, maybe this is the royalty they have always been envious of.
Wasn't too long ago entrepeneurs were celebrated leaders of American industry.
Elite government rule is a cancer to prosperity, is there a better reason to be short America?
- Rinx
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Underwater’ Mortgages to Hit 48%
If these numbers are anywhere near correct, the US banking system will continue to bleed red ink...when this current stock market rally peters out, look out for another major leg down in the markets.
- Rinx
‘Underwater’ Mortgages to Hit 48%, Deutsche Bank Says
By Jody ShennAugust 5, 2009 15:32 EDTAug. 5 (Bloomberg) --
Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG said.
The percentage of “underwater” loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes, as prices drop through the first quarter of 2011, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts in New York at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report today.
As of March 31, the share of homes mortgaged for more than their value was 26 percent, or about 14 million properties, according to Deutsche Bank. Further deterioration will depress consumer spending and boost defaults by borrowers who face unemployment, divorce, disability or other financial challenges, the securitization analysts said.
“Borrowers may also ‘ruthlessly’ or strategically default even without such life events,” they wrote.
Seven markets in states with the fastest appreciation during the five-year housing boom -- including Fort Lauderdale and Miami, Florida; Merced and Modesto, California; and Las Vegas -- may find 90 percent of borrowers underwater, according to the report.
The share of borrowers owing more than 125 percent of their property’s value will increase to 28 percent from 13 percent, according to Weaver and Shen.Home prices will decline another 14 percent on average, the analysts wrote.
- Rinx
‘Underwater’ Mortgages to Hit 48%, Deutsche Bank Says
By Jody ShennAugust 5, 2009 15:32 EDTAug. 5 (Bloomberg) --
Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG said.
The percentage of “underwater” loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes, as prices drop through the first quarter of 2011, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts in New York at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report today.
As of March 31, the share of homes mortgaged for more than their value was 26 percent, or about 14 million properties, according to Deutsche Bank. Further deterioration will depress consumer spending and boost defaults by borrowers who face unemployment, divorce, disability or other financial challenges, the securitization analysts said.
“Borrowers may also ‘ruthlessly’ or strategically default even without such life events,” they wrote.
Seven markets in states with the fastest appreciation during the five-year housing boom -- including Fort Lauderdale and Miami, Florida; Merced and Modesto, California; and Las Vegas -- may find 90 percent of borrowers underwater, according to the report.
The share of borrowers owing more than 125 percent of their property’s value will increase to 28 percent from 13 percent, according to Weaver and Shen.Home prices will decline another 14 percent on average, the analysts wrote.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Where is the Price of Oil Headed?
According to this research just released by BMO Nesbitt Burns it ain't headed back down to $30 anytime soon. High operating costs beget high oil prices.
- Rinx
2008 Break even price for oil & gas: US$87.24-BMO Nesbitt
Posted by Keith Schaefer on July 22, 2009
The breakeven price for oil and gas companies in 2008 was US$87.24 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), BMO Nesbitt Burns said in their annual Global Cost Study released July 21. The three year average for the industry’s breakeven price is US$73.60. They estimate the 2009 breakeven price will fall roughly 20% to close to US$70. It has risen steadily since 1999 when it was $16.96BMO Nesbitt Burns is one of the largest Canadian brokerage firms. Their survey included 118 companies that produced 19 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 85 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcf/d).
These numbers encompass all costs, or what the industry calls full cycle costs, and include a 10% return on capital for the producer.(This is an important distinction as many investors get confused on costs. When companies report break-even costs on wells or production, they are often referring to operating costs, or what the industry calls half-cycle costs. Energy companies can say they can produce oil or gas at $X, but that may be on an operating basis, and not include items like land acquisition (this is especially true for the new shale gas plays).)BMO says the rise in the breakeven price is caused by two factors:1) Operating costs have gone from US$4.50 per boe in 1999 to almost $16 in 20082) Rising Finding & Development Costs (F&D). This is the big jump - from US$3.88 in 1999 to $23.16 in 2008.
This is the cost for replacing reserves. If a company has 10 million boe in reserves in Year 1, but produced 1 million boe that year, it now only has 9 million boe in reserves. The cost of replenishing that 1 million boe lost to production has increased dramatically.
I’ll highlight several points that I think investors would find interesting:F&D costs in 2008 rose 56%, a huge jump. BMO said this was because many companies actually showed negative reserve growth in 2008, despite $323 billion being spent on exploration by these 118 companies.This is because costs were still reflecting the highly inflated cost structure of 2005-2008, while the year end oil price collapsed. Companies must report their reserves based on the year end oil price. They spent their exploration money throughout the year finding oil reserves based on $100 oil, but it ended up just over $44.
In North America, BMO reports reserve additions cost more than US$41/boe, almost double their global average. (However, North American accounting provisions could just be tougher - but I’m not sure about that.)Return on capital for energy producers has decreased since 2005, as government have taken a larger chunk of the profits, and the quality of crude has declined. So profit per barrel has declined and the cost of finding a barrel has increased, despite over $1.2 trillion spent on exploration in the last five years, BMO reports.
There are a couple issues that would indicate higher oil prices are here to stay:-historically, there is still a small surplus capacity in the global system, even with the global recession. BMO’s charts show it to be under 5 million boe, vs. over 20 million in the 1980s and early 1990s.-a shortage in skilled labour within the industry remains - geologists, engineers etc.BMO also reports that previously when there was surplus capacity, the industry was also able to discover large low cost reserves in the world that helped bring costs down. They don’t see that on the horizon right now.
The oil sands, a new unconventional source of oil, might be able to get to all in cost of US$50.They do point to shale gas as one such possibility. Natural gas could potentially find a breakeven price of US$5/mcf, down from $9.28. However, I have written before how the financial statements of these companies are not yet showing any significant decrease in their finding costs, as is shown on the line item “Depreciation, Depletion & Acquisition”, or DD&A.
Lastly, and this is important for the many thousands of retail investors who own the Canadian natural gas stocks, is that costs to find gas in Canada is 50% higher than in the US - >US$10/mcf vs. US$7.09. The reason for this is that Canadian companies built up production as fast as they could over the last few years, with the hopes of being bought out by a royalty trust, and that game is now gone, or much reduced.The Canadian producers just did not need to be as efficient in their growth as their US counterparts. (Having said that, their success rate in drilling is still very high.) But this has resulted in high debt levels for the Canadian companies during a time of low commodity prices. Much if not all of their cash flow growth over the coming years will be used to reduce debt, and will not flow to investors. This means investors need to be very choosy in deciding which if any gas weighted juniors or intermediate producers.
- Rinx
2008 Break even price for oil & gas: US$87.24-BMO Nesbitt
Posted by Keith Schaefer on July 22, 2009
The breakeven price for oil and gas companies in 2008 was US$87.24 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), BMO Nesbitt Burns said in their annual Global Cost Study released July 21. The three year average for the industry’s breakeven price is US$73.60. They estimate the 2009 breakeven price will fall roughly 20% to close to US$70. It has risen steadily since 1999 when it was $16.96BMO Nesbitt Burns is one of the largest Canadian brokerage firms. Their survey included 118 companies that produced 19 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 85 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcf/d).
These numbers encompass all costs, or what the industry calls full cycle costs, and include a 10% return on capital for the producer.(This is an important distinction as many investors get confused on costs. When companies report break-even costs on wells or production, they are often referring to operating costs, or what the industry calls half-cycle costs. Energy companies can say they can produce oil or gas at $X, but that may be on an operating basis, and not include items like land acquisition (this is especially true for the new shale gas plays).)BMO says the rise in the breakeven price is caused by two factors:1) Operating costs have gone from US$4.50 per boe in 1999 to almost $16 in 20082) Rising Finding & Development Costs (F&D). This is the big jump - from US$3.88 in 1999 to $23.16 in 2008.
This is the cost for replacing reserves. If a company has 10 million boe in reserves in Year 1, but produced 1 million boe that year, it now only has 9 million boe in reserves. The cost of replenishing that 1 million boe lost to production has increased dramatically.
I’ll highlight several points that I think investors would find interesting:F&D costs in 2008 rose 56%, a huge jump. BMO said this was because many companies actually showed negative reserve growth in 2008, despite $323 billion being spent on exploration by these 118 companies.This is because costs were still reflecting the highly inflated cost structure of 2005-2008, while the year end oil price collapsed. Companies must report their reserves based on the year end oil price. They spent their exploration money throughout the year finding oil reserves based on $100 oil, but it ended up just over $44.
In North America, BMO reports reserve additions cost more than US$41/boe, almost double their global average. (However, North American accounting provisions could just be tougher - but I’m not sure about that.)Return on capital for energy producers has decreased since 2005, as government have taken a larger chunk of the profits, and the quality of crude has declined. So profit per barrel has declined and the cost of finding a barrel has increased, despite over $1.2 trillion spent on exploration in the last five years, BMO reports.
There are a couple issues that would indicate higher oil prices are here to stay:-historically, there is still a small surplus capacity in the global system, even with the global recession. BMO’s charts show it to be under 5 million boe, vs. over 20 million in the 1980s and early 1990s.-a shortage in skilled labour within the industry remains - geologists, engineers etc.BMO also reports that previously when there was surplus capacity, the industry was also able to discover large low cost reserves in the world that helped bring costs down. They don’t see that on the horizon right now.
The oil sands, a new unconventional source of oil, might be able to get to all in cost of US$50.They do point to shale gas as one such possibility. Natural gas could potentially find a breakeven price of US$5/mcf, down from $9.28. However, I have written before how the financial statements of these companies are not yet showing any significant decrease in their finding costs, as is shown on the line item “Depreciation, Depletion & Acquisition”, or DD&A.
Lastly, and this is important for the many thousands of retail investors who own the Canadian natural gas stocks, is that costs to find gas in Canada is 50% higher than in the US - >US$10/mcf vs. US$7.09. The reason for this is that Canadian companies built up production as fast as they could over the last few years, with the hopes of being bought out by a royalty trust, and that game is now gone, or much reduced.The Canadian producers just did not need to be as efficient in their growth as their US counterparts. (Having said that, their success rate in drilling is still very high.) But this has resulted in high debt levels for the Canadian companies during a time of low commodity prices. Much if not all of their cash flow growth over the coming years will be used to reduce debt, and will not flow to investors. This means investors need to be very choosy in deciding which if any gas weighted juniors or intermediate producers.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Pope calls for a "global authority" on economy
The idea of a unified world government, redistribution of wealth, one central bank, etc., once was discussed in secret bilderberg meetings, or whispered among the Rothchilds and Rockefeller's and their ilk.
Now the "New world order" is openly discussed - by the Pope no less. It's no surprise the Vatican Banksters are involved.
The greed at this level is insatiable, I'm afraid they will stop nothing short of total control of the global economy and population. It was written more than a century ago, and today we are witnessing implementation.
-Rinx
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Atlas Shrugging
I recently plowed through 1200 pages of Ayn Rand's classic - Atlas Shrugged. Have to say it was one of the better reads if not the best. Parallels to today's socio, political and economic environment that Rand wrote about 50 years ago are striking.
Looks like I am not the only one discovering this classic as this interview suggests http://www.pjtv.com/video/PJTV_Daily/Is_Atlas_Shrugging%3F/1530/;jsessionid=abcwLXV6TxUNM7v1Ipras
- Rinx
Looks like I am not the only one discovering this classic as this interview suggests http://www.pjtv.com/video/PJTV_Daily/Is_Atlas_Shrugging%3F/1530/;jsessionid=abcwLXV6TxUNM7v1Ipras
- Rinx
Friday, February 20, 2009
US Bankrupt
or at least according to our new favourite economic YouTube reporter.
caution: Foul language!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxPcJyypUKc
caution: Foul language!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxPcJyypUKc
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Eastern Europe is about to Blow
I wonder if this is the reason for the parabolic move in Gold today? It's not hard to imagine we are teetering on the edge of the dark interregnum
- Rinx
Written by Mike Whitney February 17, 2009
"ICH" -- -Eastern Europe is about to blow. If it does, it could take much of the EU with it. It's an emergency situation but there are no easy solutions. The IMF doesn't have the resources for a bailout of this size and the recession is spreading faster than relief efforts can be organized. Finance ministers and central bankers are running in circles trying to put out one fire after another. Its only a matter of time before they are overtaken by events. If one country is allowed to default, the dominoes could begin to tumble through the whole region. This could trigger dramatic changes in the political landscape. The rise of fascism is no longer out of the question.
The UK Telegraph's economics editor Edmund Conway sums it up like this:
"A 'second wave' of countries will fall victim to the economic crisis and face being bailed out by the International Monetary Fund, its chief warned at the G7 summit in Rome....But with some countries' economies effectively dwarfed by the size of their banking sector and its financial liabilities, there are fears they could fall victim to balance of payments and currency crises, much as Iceland did before receiving emergency assistance from the IMF last year." (UK Telegraph)
Foreign capital is fleeing at an alarming rate; nearly two-thirds gone in matter of months. Deflation is pushing down asset prices, increasing unemployment, and compounding the debt-burden of financial institutions. It's the same everywhere. The economies are being hollowed out and stripped of capital. Ukraine is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary have all slipped into a low-grade depression. The countries that followed Washington's economic regimen have suffered the most. They bet that debt-fueled growth and exports would lead to prosperity. That dream has been shattered. They haven't developed their consumer markets, so demand is weak. Capital is scarce and businesses are being forced to deleverage to avoid default. All of Eastern Europe has gotten a margin call. They need extra funds to cover the falling value of their equity. They need a lifeline from the IMF or their economies will continue to crumble.
The UK Telegraph's economics correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written a series of articles about Eastern Europe. In "Failure to save East Europe will lead to Worldwide meltdown" he says:
"Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.
"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc....
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data). (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard UK Telegraph)An economic crisis is quickly turning into a political crisis.
Riots have broken out in capitals across Eastern Europe. Mr. Geithner had better be paying attention. The prospects for political upheaval are growing. Public anxiety can spill out onto the streets at a moments notice. Governments must act quickly and with resolve. These countries need hard currency and guarantees of support. If they don't get help, the simmering public fury will turn into something much more lethal.
UK Telegraph's economics correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
"Global banks have so far written down half the $2,200bn losses estimated by the IMF. On top of this, EU banks have $1,600bn of exposure to Eastern Europe -- increasingly viewed as Europe’s subprime debacle, and EU corporate debts are 95pc of GDP compared to 50pc in the US, a mounting concern as default rates surge.
“It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems. Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance." (UK Telegraph)
It's the same wherever banks merged their commercial and investment branches. Debt has skyrocketed to unsustainable levels destabilizing the entire economy. The banks have been operating like hedge funds, concealing their activities on off-balance sheets operations and maximizing their leverage through opaque debt-instruments. Now the global economy is caught in the downdraft of a collapsing speculative bubble. East Europe has been hit hard, but it's just the first of many bowling pins that will fall. All of Europe has been infected by the same virus which originated on Wall Street. Monday's New York Times summarizes developments in the EU:
"Europe sank even deeper into recession than the United States in the closing months of last year, according to figures published Friday...The economy of the 16 countries sharing the euro currency declined by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, (an annualized drop of roughly 6 percent) according to the European Union's statistics office. That is even worse than the 1 percent decline in the United States economy during that period, compared with the previous quarter.
“Today’s data wipes out any illusion that the euro zone is getting off lightly in this global downturn,” said Jörg Radeke, an economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research in London. ("Europe Slump Deeper than Expected" New york Times)
The "liquidationists" would like to see governments cut off the flow of funds to ailing financial institutions and let them fail by themselves. It's Darwinian madness, like waiting out a heart attack on the kitchen floor instead of rushing to the hospital for emergency care. The global economy is decelerating at the fastest pace on record. 40 percent of global wealth has been wiped out. The banking system is insolvent, unemployment is soaring, tax revenues are falling, the markets are in shock, housing is crashing, deficits are soaring, and consumer confidence is at its lowest point in history. This is no time to cling to half-baked ideology. The global economy is undergoing a massive system-wide contraction which could spin out of control and plunge us into another world war. Political leaders need to grasp the urgency of the moment and keep the vehicle from careening into the ditch.
- Rinx
Written by Mike Whitney February 17, 2009
"ICH" -- -Eastern Europe is about to blow. If it does, it could take much of the EU with it. It's an emergency situation but there are no easy solutions. The IMF doesn't have the resources for a bailout of this size and the recession is spreading faster than relief efforts can be organized. Finance ministers and central bankers are running in circles trying to put out one fire after another. Its only a matter of time before they are overtaken by events. If one country is allowed to default, the dominoes could begin to tumble through the whole region. This could trigger dramatic changes in the political landscape. The rise of fascism is no longer out of the question.
The UK Telegraph's economics editor Edmund Conway sums it up like this:
"A 'second wave' of countries will fall victim to the economic crisis and face being bailed out by the International Monetary Fund, its chief warned at the G7 summit in Rome....But with some countries' economies effectively dwarfed by the size of their banking sector and its financial liabilities, there are fears they could fall victim to balance of payments and currency crises, much as Iceland did before receiving emergency assistance from the IMF last year." (UK Telegraph)
Foreign capital is fleeing at an alarming rate; nearly two-thirds gone in matter of months. Deflation is pushing down asset prices, increasing unemployment, and compounding the debt-burden of financial institutions. It's the same everywhere. The economies are being hollowed out and stripped of capital. Ukraine is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary have all slipped into a low-grade depression. The countries that followed Washington's economic regimen have suffered the most. They bet that debt-fueled growth and exports would lead to prosperity. That dream has been shattered. They haven't developed their consumer markets, so demand is weak. Capital is scarce and businesses are being forced to deleverage to avoid default. All of Eastern Europe has gotten a margin call. They need extra funds to cover the falling value of their equity. They need a lifeline from the IMF or their economies will continue to crumble.
The UK Telegraph's economics correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written a series of articles about Eastern Europe. In "Failure to save East Europe will lead to Worldwide meltdown" he says:
"Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.
"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) says bad debts will top 10pc and may reach 20pc....
Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.
Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.
They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data). (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard UK Telegraph)An economic crisis is quickly turning into a political crisis.
Riots have broken out in capitals across Eastern Europe. Mr. Geithner had better be paying attention. The prospects for political upheaval are growing. Public anxiety can spill out onto the streets at a moments notice. Governments must act quickly and with resolve. These countries need hard currency and guarantees of support. If they don't get help, the simmering public fury will turn into something much more lethal.
UK Telegraph's economics correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
"Global banks have so far written down half the $2,200bn losses estimated by the IMF. On top of this, EU banks have $1,600bn of exposure to Eastern Europe -- increasingly viewed as Europe’s subprime debacle, and EU corporate debts are 95pc of GDP compared to 50pc in the US, a mounting concern as default rates surge.
“It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems. Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance." (UK Telegraph)
It's the same wherever banks merged their commercial and investment branches. Debt has skyrocketed to unsustainable levels destabilizing the entire economy. The banks have been operating like hedge funds, concealing their activities on off-balance sheets operations and maximizing their leverage through opaque debt-instruments. Now the global economy is caught in the downdraft of a collapsing speculative bubble. East Europe has been hit hard, but it's just the first of many bowling pins that will fall. All of Europe has been infected by the same virus which originated on Wall Street. Monday's New York Times summarizes developments in the EU:
"Europe sank even deeper into recession than the United States in the closing months of last year, according to figures published Friday...The economy of the 16 countries sharing the euro currency declined by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter, (an annualized drop of roughly 6 percent) according to the European Union's statistics office. That is even worse than the 1 percent decline in the United States economy during that period, compared with the previous quarter.
“Today’s data wipes out any illusion that the euro zone is getting off lightly in this global downturn,” said Jörg Radeke, an economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research in London. ("Europe Slump Deeper than Expected" New york Times)
The "liquidationists" would like to see governments cut off the flow of funds to ailing financial institutions and let them fail by themselves. It's Darwinian madness, like waiting out a heart attack on the kitchen floor instead of rushing to the hospital for emergency care. The global economy is decelerating at the fastest pace on record. 40 percent of global wealth has been wiped out. The banking system is insolvent, unemployment is soaring, tax revenues are falling, the markets are in shock, housing is crashing, deficits are soaring, and consumer confidence is at its lowest point in history. This is no time to cling to half-baked ideology. The global economy is undergoing a massive system-wide contraction which could spin out of control and plunge us into another world war. Political leaders need to grasp the urgency of the moment and keep the vehicle from careening into the ditch.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
The American Oligarchy
A must watch PBS video on US Banks. Some of the best thought out solutions to the economic crisis I have heard. This is a benchmark to judge Geitner.
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02132009/watch.html
- Rinx
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/02132009/watch.html
- Rinx
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
'This is the worst recession for over 100 years'
Ed Balls, the PM's closest ally, warns that downturn is ferocious and says impact will last 15 years
By Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor, and Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Tuesday, 10 February 2009
Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century, surpassing even the Great Depression of the 1930s, one of Gordon Brown's most senior ministers and confidants has admitted.
In an extraordinary admission about the severity of the economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now. The Schools Secretary's comments carry added weight because he is a former chief economic adviser to the Treasury and regarded as one of the Prime Ministers's closest allies.
Mr Balls said yesterday: "The reality is that this is becoming the most serious global recession for, I'm sure, over 100 years, as it will turn out."
He warned that events worldwide were moving at a "speed, pace and ferocity which none of us have seen before" and banks were losing cash on a "scale that nobody believed possible".
The minister stunned his audience at a Labour conference in Yorkshire by forecasting that times could be tougher than in the depression of the 1930s, when male unemployment in some cities reached 70 per cent. He also appeared to hint that the recession could play into the hands of the far right.
"The economy is going to define our politics in this region and in Britain in the next year, the next five years, the next 10 and even the next 15 years," Mr Balls said. "These are seismic events that are going to change the political landscape. I think this is a financial crisis more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s, and we all remember how the politics of that era were shaped by the economy."
Philip Hammond, the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said Mr Balls's predictions were "a staggering and very worrying admission from a cabinet minister and Gordon Brown's closest ally in the Treasury over the past 10 years". He added: "We are being told that not only are we facing the worst recession in 100 years, but that it will last for over a decade – far longer than Treasury forecasts predict."
The minister's comments came as the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, admitted the global economy was "seeing the most difficult economic conditions for generations". Writing in today's Independent, Mr Darling said his plans for shoring up Britain's finances included "measures to insure against extreme losses" as well as separating out impaired assets into a "parallel financial vehicle". Unemployment figures out tomorrow are expected to show the number of people out of work has passed two million. The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report, also released tomorrow, is expected to include a gloomy forecast for economic growth.
Yesterday, the Financial Services Authority warned that the recession "may be deeper and more prolonged than expected", adding that the global financial system had "suffered its greatest crisis in more than 70 years".
Speaking to Labour activists in Sheffield, Mr Balls conceded that the Government must share some of the blame because it had failed properly to control the banks. But he accused the Tories of blocking Labour's attempts to tighten financial rules.
He said: "People are quite right to say that financial regulation wasn't tough enough in Britain and around the world, that regulators misunderstood and did not see the nature of the risks of the dangers being run in our financial institutions – absolutely right."
The other great depressions
*Long Depression, 1873–96
Precipitated by the "panic of 1873" crisis on Wall Street and a severe outbreak of equine flu (Karl Benz's first automobile did not chug on to the scene until 1886), it was remarkable for its longevity as well as its global reach. In Britain, it was the rural south rather than the rich cities of the north that suffered. The UK ceased to be a nation that relied in any way on farming for its livelihood.
*Great Depression, 1930s
The "Hungry Thirties" were rough on many, at a time when welfare systems were rudimentary. The worst period was from the Wall Street Crash of 1929 to about 1932, but in places such as Jarrow, the unemployment rate hardly dipped below 50 per cent until the economy was mobilised in 1940. However, for many in the south and for the middle classes, the times were relatively prosperous.
By Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor, and Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor
Tuesday, 10 February 2009
Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century, surpassing even the Great Depression of the 1930s, one of Gordon Brown's most senior ministers and confidants has admitted.
In an extraordinary admission about the severity of the economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now. The Schools Secretary's comments carry added weight because he is a former chief economic adviser to the Treasury and regarded as one of the Prime Ministers's closest allies.
Mr Balls said yesterday: "The reality is that this is becoming the most serious global recession for, I'm sure, over 100 years, as it will turn out."
He warned that events worldwide were moving at a "speed, pace and ferocity which none of us have seen before" and banks were losing cash on a "scale that nobody believed possible".
The minister stunned his audience at a Labour conference in Yorkshire by forecasting that times could be tougher than in the depression of the 1930s, when male unemployment in some cities reached 70 per cent. He also appeared to hint that the recession could play into the hands of the far right.
"The economy is going to define our politics in this region and in Britain in the next year, the next five years, the next 10 and even the next 15 years," Mr Balls said. "These are seismic events that are going to change the political landscape. I think this is a financial crisis more extreme and more serious than that of the 1930s, and we all remember how the politics of that era were shaped by the economy."
Philip Hammond, the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said Mr Balls's predictions were "a staggering and very worrying admission from a cabinet minister and Gordon Brown's closest ally in the Treasury over the past 10 years". He added: "We are being told that not only are we facing the worst recession in 100 years, but that it will last for over a decade – far longer than Treasury forecasts predict."
The minister's comments came as the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, admitted the global economy was "seeing the most difficult economic conditions for generations". Writing in today's Independent, Mr Darling said his plans for shoring up Britain's finances included "measures to insure against extreme losses" as well as separating out impaired assets into a "parallel financial vehicle". Unemployment figures out tomorrow are expected to show the number of people out of work has passed two million. The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report, also released tomorrow, is expected to include a gloomy forecast for economic growth.
Yesterday, the Financial Services Authority warned that the recession "may be deeper and more prolonged than expected", adding that the global financial system had "suffered its greatest crisis in more than 70 years".
Speaking to Labour activists in Sheffield, Mr Balls conceded that the Government must share some of the blame because it had failed properly to control the banks. But he accused the Tories of blocking Labour's attempts to tighten financial rules.
He said: "People are quite right to say that financial regulation wasn't tough enough in Britain and around the world, that regulators misunderstood and did not see the nature of the risks of the dangers being run in our financial institutions – absolutely right."
The other great depressions
*Long Depression, 1873–96
Precipitated by the "panic of 1873" crisis on Wall Street and a severe outbreak of equine flu (Karl Benz's first automobile did not chug on to the scene until 1886), it was remarkable for its longevity as well as its global reach. In Britain, it was the rural south rather than the rich cities of the north that suffered. The UK ceased to be a nation that relied in any way on farming for its livelihood.
*Great Depression, 1930s
The "Hungry Thirties" were rough on many, at a time when welfare systems were rudimentary. The worst period was from the Wall Street Crash of 1929 to about 1932, but in places such as Jarrow, the unemployment rate hardly dipped below 50 per cent until the economy was mobilised in 1940. However, for many in the south and for the middle classes, the times were relatively prosperous.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Call Me A Cynic
but do you ever think the timing of "news" is used to push an agenda?
Case in point, a "global warming" study was released today proving the collateral affects of global warming. Yes, the "Audobon Society" released a report stating the Purple Finch bird habitat is expanding northward. These poor critters are now being spotted by bird watchers in Milwuakee Wisconsin...a full 45 miles north of the limit just 40 years ago. What horseshit.
And the report was released for news consumption when the majority of eastern NA is finally enjoying the first break from icy temps the last 6 weeks....why didn't they release this last week when the same regions were freezing their collective asses off?
We can't have folks calling into question the truth about global warming, can we?
Fact is, we are probably closer to global cooling than global warming...sun spot activity is near a century low...polar ice caps are now in full advance. Think Al Gore will tell you that?
-Rinx
Case in point, a "global warming" study was released today proving the collateral affects of global warming. Yes, the "Audobon Society" released a report stating the Purple Finch bird habitat is expanding northward. These poor critters are now being spotted by bird watchers in Milwuakee Wisconsin...a full 45 miles north of the limit just 40 years ago. What horseshit.
And the report was released for news consumption when the majority of eastern NA is finally enjoying the first break from icy temps the last 6 weeks....why didn't they release this last week when the same regions were freezing their collective asses off?
We can't have folks calling into question the truth about global warming, can we?
Fact is, we are probably closer to global cooling than global warming...sun spot activity is near a century low...polar ice caps are now in full advance. Think Al Gore will tell you that?
-Rinx
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Can Countries Really Go Bankrupt?
By SPIEGEL Staff
The bailout packages aimed at shoring up financial markets in Europe are getting increasingly expensive. A creeping depreciation of currency is inevitable and state bankruptcies can no longer be ruled out. Could the euro zone also fall victim to the global financial crisis?
"There's a rumor going around that states cannot go bankrupt," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said recently at a private bank event in Frankfurt. "This rumor is not true."
more
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,604523,00.html
The bailout packages aimed at shoring up financial markets in Europe are getting increasingly expensive. A creeping depreciation of currency is inevitable and state bankruptcies can no longer be ruled out. Could the euro zone also fall victim to the global financial crisis?
"There's a rumor going around that states cannot go bankrupt," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said recently at a private bank event in Frankfurt. "This rumor is not true."
more
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,604523,00.html
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Fed has Printing Press at the Ready
The Fed is “prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting in Washington.
Hey, and why not, printing money is quite profitable, where can I get me a business like that?
The US Treasury is going to issue so many Treasuries to pay for their stimulus programs, TARPs and other Alphabet soup programs it will overwhelm private party interest. So rather than allow interest rates to rise to try and attract more private purchases, the Fed will PRINT money and buy the Treasuries for themselves. And collect interest from American taxpayers. Let's not forget, the FED is a Private Bank.
No wonder their leader is so free with cash...it costs nothing to make, and they collect interest on every dollar they drop!
Hey, and why not, printing money is quite profitable, where can I get me a business like that?
The US Treasury is going to issue so many Treasuries to pay for their stimulus programs, TARPs and other Alphabet soup programs it will overwhelm private party interest. So rather than allow interest rates to rise to try and attract more private purchases, the Fed will PRINT money and buy the Treasuries for themselves. And collect interest from American taxpayers. Let's not forget, the FED is a Private Bank.
No wonder their leader is so free with cash...it costs nothing to make, and they collect interest on every dollar they drop!
Sunday, January 25, 2009
The Looting of America - J6P Awakens!
This is funny as hell (if you can stand the foul language!)...but indicative the Public is starting to push back hard against bankster gangsters...civil unrest coming to street corner near you?
http://dailybail.com/home/2009/1/25/there-are-no-words-to-describe-the-following.html
- Rinx
http://dailybail.com/home/2009/1/25/there-are-no-words-to-describe-the-following.html
- Rinx
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Deflating Bank Values
click image for larger view
and Canadian Banks are not immune..ala Royal Bank of Canada yesterday
- Rinx
Friday, January 23, 2009
Gold Keeping the Printing Press Boyz Honest
Slider On The Black post on SI today
Fiatgeddon...
Gold hits record highs in Euro & Sterling terms...http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFLN4501620090123?rpc=44The
Chinese want to de-value (as does EVERYONE else)...http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINSP35192620090123
Trillions in global currencies being created out of thin airto prime the economic pump, as Central Banks all head towardZIRP and/or quantitative easing...http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090121-710489.html
It's no longer about... "got Gold?" It's now about..."How much Gold you got?!?!"
Fasten your seat belts people & enjoy the ride!
Mo later,
S.O.T.B.
Fiatgeddon...
Gold hits record highs in Euro & Sterling terms...http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFLN4501620090123?rpc=44The
Chinese want to de-value (as does EVERYONE else)...http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINSP35192620090123
Trillions in global currencies being created out of thin airto prime the economic pump, as Central Banks all head towardZIRP and/or quantitative easing...http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090121-710489.html
It's no longer about... "got Gold?" It's now about..."How much Gold you got?!?!"
Fasten your seat belts people & enjoy the ride!
Mo later,
S.O.T.B.
Another Leg Down?
Per previous blog entry, China's Q4 growth came in at 6.5%, BUT, given they report quarterly numbers using a trailing 12 month average, the sharp drop indicates actual growth was zero, or negative.
This is a bit of a shock to conventional market wisdom, yes China (and India) were expected to slow markedly but few thought they would also be in recession. The ramifications of a unified global recession are enormous, and this new reality shifts all expectations for recovery downward.
If China is worse off then thought, expect them to spend their savings stimulating their own economy! Good God, why should the US expect them to continue to buy their debt issues to finance their stimulus program? Chimerica is dead! Did you hear Gheitner's comments on China this morning, careful Tim don't bite the hand that feeds you (what a chump...how can a tax cheat be nominated as US Treasurer...oh I forgot, the illuminati said it shall be, make no mistake about it)
So, who then is going to buy all the US bonds used to finance the $3Trillion 2009 US deficit?
Answer: US Federal Bank (via printing press)
And, we enter the Dark Interregnum...
- Rinx
This is a bit of a shock to conventional market wisdom, yes China (and India) were expected to slow markedly but few thought they would also be in recession. The ramifications of a unified global recession are enormous, and this new reality shifts all expectations for recovery downward.
If China is worse off then thought, expect them to spend their savings stimulating their own economy! Good God, why should the US expect them to continue to buy their debt issues to finance their stimulus program? Chimerica is dead! Did you hear Gheitner's comments on China this morning, careful Tim don't bite the hand that feeds you (what a chump...how can a tax cheat be nominated as US Treasurer...oh I forgot, the illuminati said it shall be, make no mistake about it)
So, who then is going to buy all the US bonds used to finance the $3Trillion 2009 US deficit?
Answer: US Federal Bank (via printing press)
And, we enter the Dark Interregnum...
- Rinx
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Oil Sands on the Brink
The venerable Canadian oil sands miner, Suncor, just released Q4 results and recorded a $200M+ loss for the quarter. Production costs were $41/Bbl (ouch)
What does that say for the balance of the industry in this low oil price environment? And pass the goat horns to the Alta Govt for jacking royalties and driving another stake into the heart of the industry...talk about killing the goose that lays the golden egg
The US government is printing money like mad (actually quantitative easing, ... "printing money like mad" scares the hell out of people)...and the $USD continues to appreciate.
It's quite a paradox, the USD theoretically has infinite supply (it's just paper and pixels) and rallies...and Oil, a finite resource that is depleting at 9%+/yr according to the IEA, is under the heel of the USD jackboot...this is a trend that HAS to reverse at some point...but the old adage is true...the market can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent.
- Rinx
What does that say for the balance of the industry in this low oil price environment? And pass the goat horns to the Alta Govt for jacking royalties and driving another stake into the heart of the industry...talk about killing the goose that lays the golden egg
The US government is printing money like mad (actually quantitative easing, ... "printing money like mad" scares the hell out of people)...and the $USD continues to appreciate.
It's quite a paradox, the USD theoretically has infinite supply (it's just paper and pixels) and rallies...and Oil, a finite resource that is depleting at 9%+/yr according to the IEA, is under the heel of the USD jackboot...this is a trend that HAS to reverse at some point...but the old adage is true...the market can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent.
- Rinx
Monday, January 19, 2009
What Does Deflation Look Like?
Nissan's factory test track. Apparently they have run out of room to store vehicles for lack of sales and overflowing dealer lots.
Also
Lower vehicle prices coming to a dealer near you. Count on it.
- Rinx
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
US Q1 Deficit
$485 Billion = US deficit in the FIRST QUARTER...that's > $150,000,000 per month...or $5.5Billion per DAY!?!
A $2Trillion dollar Deficit for the current FY is baked in the cake...in fact this is before the near $1Trillion "stimulus" package being prepared by the Obama team...and does not take into account the fact the US economy is accelerating to the downside...less tax revenue, higher social program payments. A $3 Trillion deficit for this FY is a high probability.
Question I have....who the hell is going to buy all this new debt??? The Chinese? don't count on it, they have their own set of issues due to the US slow down. This year will severely test the great Chimerica symbiosis that has kept the credit bubble blowing since 2002.
The other Question I have...IF the US finds a buyer for this new debt...where is the capital going to come from to invest in the next generation of companies and ideas that will pull the global economy out of this deflationary death spiral. The US is giant sucking machine that is inhaling vast quantities of precious capital....that ultimately will be squandered.
And I just checked the US Dollar index...and it's rallying against all currencies. UFB. US Treasuries will be the greatest bubble of them all...and it will blow up just like every other bubble in recorded history.
And the pin that pricks the bubble...what will it be? When the rest of the world finally says no to purchasing US debt, or can't afford it, or both. The ONLY recourse left is to print money out of thin air...and the house comes tumbling down.
- Rinx
A $2Trillion dollar Deficit for the current FY is baked in the cake...in fact this is before the near $1Trillion "stimulus" package being prepared by the Obama team...and does not take into account the fact the US economy is accelerating to the downside...less tax revenue, higher social program payments. A $3 Trillion deficit for this FY is a high probability.
Question I have....who the hell is going to buy all this new debt??? The Chinese? don't count on it, they have their own set of issues due to the US slow down. This year will severely test the great Chimerica symbiosis that has kept the credit bubble blowing since 2002.
The other Question I have...IF the US finds a buyer for this new debt...where is the capital going to come from to invest in the next generation of companies and ideas that will pull the global economy out of this deflationary death spiral. The US is giant sucking machine that is inhaling vast quantities of precious capital....that ultimately will be squandered.
And I just checked the US Dollar index...and it's rallying against all currencies. UFB. US Treasuries will be the greatest bubble of them all...and it will blow up just like every other bubble in recorded history.
And the pin that pricks the bubble...what will it be? When the rest of the world finally says no to purchasing US debt, or can't afford it, or both. The ONLY recourse left is to print money out of thin air...and the house comes tumbling down.
- Rinx
Nortel - BK
Nortel just announced they are filing for bankruptcy...the end of the Canadian tech behemoth, and the final chapter in a storied run. At one point in the gogo tech boom of the late 90's, Nortel's market cap was close to half trillion and that value represented 38% of the entire market cap of the TSX. Nortel burned a wide hole in many Canadian investor pockets and destroyed billions in capital.
See ya.
Nortel and all companies with broken business models need to be left alone and let die. This artificial rescuscitation of broken companies is the exact wrong antidote. Throwing good money after bad has never been a good idea...case in point GM announced yesterday (in a quiet soft shoe manner) that the current allocation of bail out money will probably not be enough. Surprise, surprise, surprise.
- Rinx
See ya.
Nortel and all companies with broken business models need to be left alone and let die. This artificial rescuscitation of broken companies is the exact wrong antidote. Throwing good money after bad has never been a good idea...case in point GM announced yesterday (in a quiet soft shoe manner) that the current allocation of bail out money will probably not be enough. Surprise, surprise, surprise.
- Rinx
Sunday, January 4, 2009
MIA
Wow, it's January 4th and my last blog entry was back mid-October....so much has transpired...where have I been??
New Year's resolution...post often...don't care so much about quality of content...no one is smart day in/day out.
Post your thoughts for the day, often what I'm thinking I read about later and say oh shit, it's hardly original content so why bother blogging.
New Year's prognostication...Inflation is a POS prediction, Deflation rules in '09. Cash is king. Damn, that's hard to write, it goes against my prevailing thoughts for most of '08.
Stay lucid, don't marry an opinion. Message to self, read previous sentence. Often.
Carpe Diem!
Rinx
New Year's resolution...post often...don't care so much about quality of content...no one is smart day in/day out.
Post your thoughts for the day, often what I'm thinking I read about later and say oh shit, it's hardly original content so why bother blogging.
New Year's prognostication...Inflation is a POS prediction, Deflation rules in '09. Cash is king. Damn, that's hard to write, it goes against my prevailing thoughts for most of '08.
Stay lucid, don't marry an opinion. Message to self, read previous sentence. Often.
Carpe Diem!
Rinx
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